Why Analysts Are Divided on Tesla Stock After Lackluster Q4 Deliveries Data

Key Takeaways

Tesla ( TSLA ) shares have fallen 18% in a five-session losing streak, capped by a 6% decline to $379.28 Thursday following disappointing fourth-quarter production and delivery numbers that has led some analysts to affirm their views on the electric vehicle maker.

Wedbush analysts maintained their "outperform" rating with a $515 price target , while JPMorgan analysts kept an "underweight" rating and $135 price target, showcasing the spectrum of opinion on Tesla's trajectory entering 2025.

Ten of the 19 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha rate Tesla stock as a "buy," along with six "hold" and three "sell" ratings and an average price target of $319.72, meaning most analysts expect the stock to slip further in the coming months.

Wedbush Stays Bullish, JPM Stays Bearish

Wedbush analysts wrote following Thursday's deliveries data that while it missed estimates, the 495,570 vehicles Tesla delivered in the quarter was a "respectable" number. They said they would be "strong buyers" of any decline in Tesla shares, as they believe shares will rise this year as a second Trump term benefits Tesla by accelerating the regulatory path to the company's autonomous taxis hitting the road.

JPMorgan analysts, however, were more focused on the EV maker's first-ever year-over-year decline in deliveries in 2024. The analysts on Friday also noted their concern that Trump's promise to eliminate clean energy programs like EV tax credits could slow Tesla's sales at a time when domestic and international competitors are consistently launching new EVs.

The JPM analysts said they have spoken to management from other carmakers who expect Trump to "substantially curtail or altogether eliminate" the EV tax credit system that helps make up a "significant minority of Tesla's current profitability."

Tesla shares edged slightly higher in premarket trading Friday.

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