What past cycles say about Bitcoin potentially surpassing $1.5 million

With bitcoin's price climbing and investor interest surging, questions about its potential to surpass $115,000 this year are gaining momentum.

Roundtable anchor, Rob Nelson, spoke with Brandon Green, Chief of Staff at BTC Inc., to explore the impact of past cycles, market dynamics, and what might lie ahead for the world's leading cryptocurrency.

Green reflected on the anomalies of the previous cycle, noting, "The past cycle was probably an aberration." He pointed to key events, such as Elon Musk's initial support for bitcoin and subsequent concerns about its carbon footprint, as contributing factors. "All of that, I think, kind of did a short circuit on the early part of the bull run," he said, adding that the 2021 rally was largely driven by leverage and marred by events like the FTX collapse.

Green highlighted the importance of historical patterns in bitcoin's price action. "If you want to look at how this cycle may perform, I think you actually need to look to the 2017 cycle and even the 2013 cycle before that," he explained. According to Green, previous cycles have shown a 100x increase from the bottom, which could imply a theoretical peak of $1.5 million for this cycle. "Now, I think that that's a crazy number," he admitted, "But that would just be kind of us following the previous trends."

In the shorter-term, it does seem worthwhile to point to analysts that have come close to hitting their bullish calls from the beginning of the year. While calls for bitcoin to hit $200,000 seem out of the money with just about 20 days to go in the year, Fundstrat's call for $115,000 (which was made back in January) still seems achievable .

Drawing comparisons to past halvings, Green noted striking parallels in price movements. "The price during the halving of 2016 was $650. The price during the halving of 2024 was $65,000," he observed. By this logic, he suggested the possibility of bitcoin hitting $2 million by the cycle's end wasn't as preposterous as it sounds.

While the predictions may seem bold, Green emphasized the market's bullish tailwinds. "There's plenty of bullish tailwinds that are kind of pushing the market forward," he remarked. Whether bitcoin reaches these milestones remains uncertain, but the discussion underscores the optimism surrounding its long-term growth.