Bitcoin Forecast Shows 85% Probability of Surpassing $100K by Year-End, Analysts Predict Further Gains
According to market forecasts, there is an 85% probability that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 by the end of 2024, with a median projection of $125,000. Analysts attribute the recent 40% surge in November to growing institutional interest and the role of Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have absorbed over 90% of sell-side pressure from long-term holders. Despite potential short-term corrections, Bitcoin's momentum is expected to continue, with some predicting it could reach $150,000 by the end of 2024, driven by increased adoption and robust institutional backing.
Bitcoin is edging closer to the symbolic $100,000 mark, with market forecasts suggesting it could surpass that milestone in 2024. According to Kalshi, a prediction platform, there is an 85% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by the end of this year and a 9% chance it could reach $150,000. The median projection places its value at $125,000, reflecting growing optimism about the cryptocurrency's performance in the coming weeks.
November alone saw Bitcoin rise by nearly 40%, contributing to a 55% surge over the fourth quarter. Analysts predict that if the trend continues, Bitcoin’s market cap could reach $2.5 trillion if prices hit $127,000 by early 2025. The recent rally is being fueled by a combination of market dynamics and significant institutional interest.
One of the major drivers of this upward momentum has been the role of Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Data from Glassnode reveals that ETFs have absorbed more than 90% of the sell-side pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders. This has helped stabilize prices despite increased profit-taking from these investors. Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recently recorded their largest weekly inflows since their inception, with total assets under management surpassing $100 billion. The growing adoption of ETFs reflects heightened institutional interest in Bitcoin as a viable asset class.
MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor, a prominent Bitcoin advocate, remains bullish on the cryptocurrency. Saylor has suggested that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 as early as December, pointing to a potential shift in U.S. regulatory attitudes toward digital assets. He noted that Donald Trump’s re-election could foster a friendlier environment for cryptocurrencies, potentially marking the end of what he called the “war on crypto.”
As Bitcoin marches toward new highs, analysts are mindful of the potential need for a price correction. A short-term pullback could provide stability and pave the way for sustained growth. Despite these cautions, Bitcoin’s current momentum is undeniable, bolstered by strong institutional backing and an influx of ETF investments.
Kalshi’s data underscores the growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value. While the probability of hitting $150,000 by the end of 2024 is moderate, Bitcoin’s ability to shatter records in 2023 suggests that more milestones could be within reach. With increased adoption and robust inflows from institutional players, Bitcoin looks set to finish 2024 on a historic high, solidifying its place as a dominant force in the financial landscape.