BofA Strategists Make Contrarian Bet on Shunned European Stocks

(Bloomberg) -- Strategists at Bank of America Corp. are making a contrarian bet on European stocks as the continent’s main equity index heads for its worst year of underperformance relative to the US since 1976.

Scope for fiscal spending appears to be improving in Europe, while any potential ceasefire in Ukraine could ease pressure from high energy prices, the BofA team led by Sebastian Raedler wrote in a research note. By contrast, the US economy faces headwinds from a stronger dollar and a potential weakening in real disposable income, the strategists said.

“The projected upside for relative euro area growth momentum implies tactical upside for European versus global equities,” Raedler said, upgrading the region to overweight from neutral.

Most investors are pouring money into the opposite trade, shunning Europe as a political crisis engulfs France and buying up US stocks on bets they will get a boost from President-elect Donald Trump’s America First policies. US stock funds have attracted $441 billion of new funds so far this year, while European funds have lost $56 billion, according to EPFR data.

There is now an “extreme disconnect” between investor bullishness on US assets and bearishness on the rest of the world, BofA strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a seperate note. Acknowledging that their call is “most unconventional,” they forecast that bonds, gold and global equities will outperform the US in 2025.

Among the factors that could help boost non-US assets are China aggressively easing its fiscal policy and the European Central Bank cutting interest rates in anticipation of Trump’s proposed trade tariffs.