Milei Hints at FX Policy Move After Inflation Slows Below 3%

(Bloomberg) -- Argentine President Javier Milei foreshadowed Tuesday he would change his currency policy after the end of the year if inflation stays constant in November and December.

Milei said he would slow the monthly pace of currency devaluation that the central bank controls, known as the crawling peg, to 1% from 2% if price increases stay at or below October’s 2.7% reading. Annual inflation also slowed to 193%, dipping below 200% for the first time since he took office.

His comment on social media came shortly after government data confirmed price increases last month cooled more than expected to the lowest level in three years. It joins a string of economic wins for the libertarian, who has brought up the controversial policy change before, but never put such a specific time frame on potential moves. Before the inflation print, his economic team was already celebrating.

“Nobody can doubt that we are in the best moment since the president’s inauguration,” Economy Minister Luis Caputo said at an event at the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange earlier Tuesday.

If implemented, the policy change would likely pile on tensions between Argentina and International Monetary Fund staff, who have called for Milei to implement a “more flexible” currency policy instead of a more rigid one. Although Milei pledges to lift FX controls at some point and move closer toward the IMF’s view, slowing the peg in the short term risks exacerbating investor concerns that the peso is overvalued.

Still, Milei and Caputo are basking in a series of good news after inheriting Argentina’s economic crisis last December. Wages adjusted for inflation, which often correlate with approval ratings, have grown for six straight months. A tax amnesty program brought more than $20 billion back into the country. The gap between Argentina’s exchange rates, a risk barometer, is at its lowest level in five years at 16%. And later this week, Milei also plans to visit US President-elect Donald Trump, who could offer crucial support for Argentina at the IMF.

At the heart of the inflation slowdown is Milei’s unwavering commitment to a balanced budget. Argentina posted another fiscal surplus in October, Caputo said. Buenos Aires subway fares increased last month, alongside modest increases to water and gas bills. The government slashed the country’s main import tax from 17.5% to 7.5% in September.