Oil Retreats on Weak Outlook for Chinese Demand, Stronger Dollar

(Bloomberg) -- Oil extended declines as a soft outlook for demand in China, the world’s largest crude importer, continued to plague the market.

West Texas Intermediate retreated 3.3% to settle near $68 a barrel, while Brent settled below $72. Data over the weekend showed anemic Chinese consumer inflation in October and another decline in factory-gate prices. The dollar climbed further, making commodities priced in the currency less appealing.

The retreat in crude prices comes alongside weakness in key market indicators. The nearest WTI futures contract traded at its smallest premium to the following month since June on an intraday basis, indicating that short-term tightness in the physical oil market is easing.

That signals a marked shift in sentiment from the days leading up to the US election, when hedge funds raised their bullish position on WTI crude by the most since March. An OPEC+ decision to push back an anticipated output hike and a flare-up in the Middle East conflict fostered a risk-on mood that has since dissipated.

The cartel’s move to delay the production increase “provided only a temporary boost to the supply risk baked into crude oil prices, but our decomposition of energy market returns suggest that another delay just won’t cut it,” Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities, said in a note to clients.

“In this context, without a resurgence in geopolitical risk tied to oil supplies, the set-up would favor continued downside in prices,” Ghali added.

Crude traders have also been assessing the outlook for global demand heading into 2025, as well as the implications stemming from Donald Trump’s election to the White House, including a surging dollar and tensions between Israel and Iran. With a surplus widely expected next year, investors will get a slew of influential outlooks this week, starting with the view from OPEC on Tuesday.

After the outlook from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the US Energy Information Administration will issue its short-term projections on Wednesday, followed by the International Energy Agency the next day. In its last snapshot, OPEC downgraded its demand forecasts.

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--With assistance from Alex Longley.