Harris's proposed unrealized capital gains tax is unlikely to pass: CIO

Unrealized capital gains tax proposals may be floating back into the zeitgeist as the Harris presidential campaign marches on, but for some, the noise around it is much ado about nothing.

“You start putting biases of what you think [something] is worth versus the reality,” said Adam. “That becomes a very difficult equation to really put into a place.”

We’ve seen unrealized capital gains tax proposals before, but they’ve met plenty of resistance.

Most recently, the Biden administration proposed an unrealized capital gains tax for those with a net worth of over $100 million. The proposal could affect more than 10,600 people in the US, according to estimates.

But, unlike a capital gains tax, which is imposed on a sold item, deploying an unrealized capital gains tax is a trickier move.

Stifel chief Washington strategist Brian Gardner said in a recent client note that under an unrealized capital gains tax system, “ranking illiquid assets would not only be complicated but controversial,” adding that there would also need to be a way to provide taxpayers with “rebates for future losses.”

While analysts scratch their heads about the subject, an unrealized capital gains tax also has plenty of tomato throwers. Donald Trump called it “beyond socialism,” telling a crowd of small-business owners, “You will be forced to sell your restaurant immediately.”

Trump's onetime US Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross , concurred.

"Frankly, I think it's a ridiculous proposal," Ross said on Opening Bid .

Tesla ( TSLA ) CEO Elon Musk also had negative statements to share on the topic, proclaiming an unrealized capital gains tax would lead to “bread lines and ugly shoes.”

While Trump and Musk might deliver their messages to pack a wallop and make voters think, concerns aren't necessarily unfounded.

Raymond James's Adam has considered tax proposals made by both candidates, and thinks that regardless of the administration in office, higher taxes could impact households by almost $2,000. “[It] could be a big impact and a drag on the economy,” he said.

Both Harris and Trump face challenges given the expiration of a significant portion of the 2017 tax cuts at the end of 2025. Trump has proposed an additional extension of provisions from 2017 and potentially more tax cuts.

Harris proposed expanding the child tax credit and supported no increase in the capital gains tax, while taxing those making over $400,000 annually more.

While the presidential race is anyone’s game at this point, Adam isn’t that worried about an unrealized capital gains tax and the potential market losses. “[There’s] a low probability of it passing,” he said. “It’s pretty hard to mark to market every single year for your taxes.”

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In the below Opening Bid episode, former Trump nominee to the Federal Reserve Judy Shelton shares her outlook for the economy.