Fed’s Schmid says he wants to see more data before rate cut

(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid said he wants to see more economic data before supporting any decision to begin reducing interest rates.

Schmid, speaking with Michael McKee in a Bloomberg TV interview recorded Wednesday and aired Thursday, acknowledged inflation is moving in the right direction while arguing the Fed should be patient.

“It makes sense for me to really look at some of the data that comes in the next few weeks,” the Kansas City Fed chief, who doesn’t vote on rate decisions this year, said ahead of his bank’s closely watched annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “Before we act — at least before I act, or recommend acting — I think we need to see a little bit more.”

Schmid’s comments followed the release earlier Wednesday of minutes from the central bank’s July 30-31 policy meeting, which revealed that “several” Fed officials saw a plausible case for cutting rates last month while a “vast majority” thought it would be appropriate to begin easing at the next gathering in September.

“I still think we could see a little bit of a demand pickup if we’re not careful with the decisioning,” Schmid said.

The Fed has since July 2023 held its benchmark at the highest level in more than two decades. Cooling inflation and signs of stress in the labor market have cemented investor expectations that policymakers will deliver about 100 basis points of rate reductions over the final three policy meetings in 2024.

Inflation excluding volatile food and energy categories slowed for a fourth straight month in July, according to consumer price index data. The unemployment rate meanwhile rose to 4.3%, up from the post-pandemic low of 3.4% reached last year.

Schmid brushed aside potential concerns over a separate Bureau of Labor Statistics report published Wednesday which showed payroll growth in the year through March was likely overstated by 818,000, suggesting the labor market has been cooling more and for longer than previously thought.

“While it’s a big number, it doesn’t really change the path of the way I think of things when I think about monetary policy,” he said.