Bitcoin may be nearing a tradable bottom, according to the analyst who nailed Bitcoin’s last major swing.

“We turned pretty cautious in early February,” Fundstrat Head of Digital Asset Strategy Sean Farrell told Coinage Monday. Fundstrat’s model portfolio moved into stablecoins, anticipating volatility as the Trump administration began floating tariff policies that spooked risk markets. “It was right to move to cash and wait for some better buying opportunities.”

But now, with Bitcoin bouncing off the mid-$70K range and reclaiming $80K (however briefly) Farrell says the price action looks better. “We retested that old all-time high range,” he noted, pointing to March levels. While he stops short of calling this a definitive bottom, he adds, “The opportunity is looking better.”

Much of the short-term momentum, however, had been driven by now, disproved, rumors of a 90-day pause in Trump’s sweeping tariff plans — a move that could have signalled a broader shift in macro sentiment. “Just to round that out in the very tactical short term, it’s clear that the market is viewing this as tariffs being rolled back,” Farrell said. “And that should lead to some upward price action.”

But that relief rally is precarious. “All this headline risk… it’s tough for people to get long and stay long in size,” he said. A pause isn’t a pivot, and the can-kicking approach from Washington still leaves the crypto market exposed to sudden reversals. “If you look at like the recent ISM reports and business surveys, there’s a lot of uncertainty and a lot of capital being withheld from investment due to all of the policy uncertainty.”

Still, Farrell’s longer-term view for Bitcoin remains bullish. Fundstrat’s year-end target of $175,000 is still on the table. “Right now I’m really focused on where we find some longer-term support,” he said, noting that “the mid-$70s is probably a good place to take a swing.”

Either way, the macro narrative is setting up a powerful environment for Bitcoin. “If you assume that Trump is going to find a way to achieve some kind of Mar-a-Lago accord with all of our trading partners… it’s probably going to require a scenario in which the U.S. dollar is less central to global trade,” Farrell said. “And that would be a great environment for Bitcoin.”

And if no deal is reached? “All of this debating over trade and the stopping and starting within the economy is going to lead to some kind of slowdown… which will eventually result in some kind of need for stimulus. And as we all know, that is also a great environment for Bitcoin.”

Despite the short-term noise, Farrell believes crypto is positioning itself for something bigger. “I think a lot more people around the world are now questioning the sanctity of their relationship with the U.S. and the U.S. dollar,” he said.

In that world, Bitcoin doesn’t just hold its value — it may make its case.