We’ve been in a down cycle since 2022. That’s no secret. But what’s different now is how many signals left an impression that we were climbing out only to get blindsided by a downturn again.

Back in January, we saw a little life. Spot rates pushed upward, volumes ticked up, and there was hope that just maybe we were on the upswing. Fast forward to April and reality’s hit like a ton of bricks.

Tariffs are putting pressure on imports; the NASDAQ just had its worst single-day performance since May 2020; consumer sentiment is shaky. And right now, all of that is making its way into the freight market in the form of falling rates, declining demand, and minimal leverage for carriers.

Let’s break down where things stand:

This Chart Should Concern You: What This Carrier Authority Chart Really Means

Let’s take a minute to unpack this chart right here:

This shows net changes in active trucking authorities — basically, how many new trucking companies got started each week minus how many shut their doors.

When the number is positive, it means more trucks got added to the market. When it’s negative, more carriers exited than came in.

Here’s the problem: We’ve had more weeks adding trucks than losing them, especially over the last 60-90 days. That green number at the top right? It says we gained 203 net new authorities last week. That’s a 32.68% jump from the previous week.

Let that sink in.

We’ve been in a rate environment where many folks can barely cover costs and yet we’re still putting more trucks on the road.

Why That’s a Problem

Let me break it down: imagine there’s 100 loads available in your region, and 100 trucks trying to get them. That’s fair odds.

But now imagine next week, 25 more trucks show up — and demand stays the same. Now you’ve got 125 trucks fighting over the same 100 loads. Who wins? The broker. They don’t have to pay more to move freight. They can sit back and wait for someone to bite on a cheap rate, and somebody always will.

That’s what this chart is telling us. Even with rates falling and freight being soft, trucks are still pouring into the market. And if that trend keeps up?

Rates will keep sliding .

Why Are People Still Entering?

There are a few possible reasons:

But no matter the reason, the result’s the same — more capacity in a soft market = downward pressure on rates .

Spot Rates: Drifting Lower Each Month

Spot rates have slid from $2.39 in February to $2.24 as of April 1st. That’s a 15-cent drop in just two months—[see image below].

And according to the latest data:

That’s not seasonal cooling. That’s a steady bleed.

Volume: Still Slipping

Tender volumes dropped 0.97% week-over-week and 0.81% month-over-month . The chart tells the story—demand is soft and carriers are feeling it.

When freight volumes stay low like this, shippers gain the upper hand. They have more options, and less need to pay up.

Capacity: Rejections Tell the Truth

Tender rejections are sitting at 5.94% , which is barely above rock bottom. That’s down 0.91% WoW , with a small 0.37% MoM increase —but don’t get too excited.

This means contract carriers are still accepting almost every load offered, even the cheap ones, because the alternative is empty miles or sitting parked. This immediately determines how much freight makes it to the spot.

Contract Rates: Holding Steady, But It’s a Mirage

Contract rates dipped 0.7% compared to last week, but oddly are still up 0.6% over the last 30 days and up 1.3% from last year.

Here’s the thing—shippers are locking in contracts not because they expect rates to rise, but because they’re getting cheap contracts locked at a time when they’ve got leverage. That’s a hedge, not optimism.

Final Take:

If you’re still trying to “wait out” this market, stop. Survival in 2025 isn’t about holding your breath until things get better—it’s about learning how to breathe in this environment. The days of waiting for rates to come back are over. You’ve got to move with precision and purpose now.

Yes, know your numbers—but that’s just the starting point.

Now is the time to:

Right now, you don’t need to be perfect—you need to be strategic. Run smarter, squeeze more out of every week, and stop waiting for the market to fix your margins.

This cycle’s not done testing us. But the ones who make it out will be the ones who learned how to move, not just survive.

More to come. Stay sharp.

The post The Freight Market Is Slipping — And So Is the Confidence Behind It appeared first on FreightWaves .