US Stocks Swoon as Trump Sows Economic Fear Across Wall Street

(Bloomberg) — The US stock market rout intensified on Monday on fears that President Donald Trump’s next tariff rollout will deliver a shock to the global economy, with rising recession concerns leaving the S&P 500 Index ( ^GSPC ) on track for its worst quarter compared to the rest of the world since the 1980s.

The benchmark equities gauge slumped over 1% soon after the open in New York, teetering on the brink of a correction. The Nasdaq 100 Index ( ^NDX ) dropped 1.6%, while a Bloomberg gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps tumbled nearly 3%, with Nvidia Corp. ( NVDA ) and Tesla Inc. ( TSLA ) leading losses. Auto stocks took another dive, with Ford Motor ( F ), General Motors ( GM ) and Stellantis ( STLA ) all lower, with tariffs exacerbating worries over the impact on global trade and hits to industry profits.

The Cboe Volatility Index ( ^VIX ) jumped above 24 — topping the 20 level that starts to raise concerns for traders — and investors piled into havens like US government bonds and gold, which rose to a new record high above $3,100 an ounce.

“This is upsetting, scary and it’s exhausting,” Ivan Feinseth, chief investment officer at Tigress Financial Partners, said in a phone interview. “There’s so much uncertainty on tariffs and everyone is pessimistic about what all of this will mean for the economy, corporate profits and unemployment.”

Traders are on edge as Trump plans on Wednesday to announce sweeping levies on all of America’s trading partners. On the final session of a brutal first three months of the year, the S&P and Nasdaq 100 on pace for their worst quarters since 2022. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ( GS ) now sees a 35% chance of a US recession, echoing similar warnings from JPMorgan Chase & Co. ( JPM ) and Moody’s ( MCO ).

The S&P 500 has shed more than 5% this year, trailing the MSCI All Country World Index excluding the US Index’s more than 6% gain. That’s the widest gap in any quarter since 1988, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s an unprecedented reversal after the S&P 500 entered 2025 coming off two consecutive years of 20% gains, the first time that’s happened this century.

But the boom left positioning stretched, valuations pricey and the market vulnerable. That has forced investors to seek traditional havens like gold as worries build over a potential mix of worsening inflation and a slowing economy. The equal-weight version of the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI ) are performing better than the regular S&P index this year, a combination that since early 1990 has only happened 26% of the time.

“Traders are nervous and continue to hide from risk by plowing into safety on fears the econony is slowing much faster than initally thought,” said Scott Colyer chief executive at Advisors Asset Management. “This is going to be really tough for investors until we know more about the size and scope of tariffs and the impact on profit growth.”

The beating has extended well beyond the technology, consumer discretionary and communication services stocks that house the so-called Magnificent Seven companies and rose to heady highs during the previous years’ rallies. Energy, health care, utilities and staples companies, which pay hefty dividends and are popular with income investors when bond yields sink, were by far the best performers in the S&P 500 for the quarter.

Wall Street forecasters are sounding the alarm on US equities before the tariff deadline, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin cutting his S&P 500 target for a second time this month. He sees the benchmark ending the year around 5,700 versus his previous estimate of 6,200 — implying a gain of just 2% by year-end from Friday’s close — on a higher recession risk and tariff-related uncertainty.

Others tempering their outlooks include well-know stock bull Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. Last week, Barclays Plc’s Venu Krishna warned weakening growth will continue to curb equity gains in 2025, forcing him to cut his year-end S&P 500 target to 5,900 from 6,600.

Options volatility across markets is elevated as traders also brace for Friday’s monthly jobs report, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak after the employment figures. The S&P 500 is expected to swing 1.1% in either direction on Wednesday, with the index projected to move at least 1% in the next six trading sessions, according to Piper Sandler.