Why Elon Musk and DOGE aren't winning over the markets just yet
Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is trying to convince markets to cheer its cuts, saying the savings are in the process of moving the US to a more sustainable fiscal footing.
But data from Musk's own group and from the US Treasury show that even the world's richest man has so far had little to no impact on the government's $2 trillion annual deficits despite DOGE's ability to sow daily chaos around Washington, D.C.
Musk's goal is to halve the deficit with $1 trillion in cuts this fiscal year — which he noted Wednesday amounts to $4 billion in savings per day between now and September.
But government spending in 2025 has been all but indistinguishable from 2024, according to Treasury data, and claims from Musk's own department show him off his stated pace as DOGE touts $65 billion in savings during President Donald Trump's first 37 days in office.
DOGE's claims have also engendered deep skepticism after a "wall of receipts" was posted online that supported only a fraction of those claimed savings and proved to be rife with errors.
A Yahoo Finance itemization shows that an initial tally of more than $16.6 billion in claimed savings has actually shrunk in the 10 days since the launch.
The number stood at $9.75 billion as of Tuesday — even as the number of contracts itemized has doubled. Numerous overstatements have been quietly fixed .
Even DOGE's overall $65 billion claim — which it says factors in other moves like fraud detection and workforce deductions — is unlikely to move the federal government's fiscal picture.
As one example, the US government pays approximately $3 billion every day in interest on the US debt alone.
"DOGE isn't likely to be a clear winner either for US Government savings or for financial markets worried about US debt/deficits," Terry Haines, the Pangaea Policy Advisors founder, said in a recent note to clients as he outlined what he called "the naivety of markets."
The lack of concrete savings in evidence could undermine a core pitch from Musk and other Trump aides to investors in recent weeks. Their case has essentially been to push traders to weigh cuts to stabilize US government finances to a greater degree than the destabilization caused by Musk's rapid-fire moves through the federal government .
How investors eventually weigh that trade-off remains to be seen, but Musk's firing of thousands of workers and upending of government programs are clearly dominant themes of his time in Washington so far.
Even Trump's own cabinet has reportedly been caught off guard and frustrated by some of his moves.
At a cabinet meeting at the White House on Wednesday, Musk tried to smooth over those ruffled relations, describing DOGE as a "support function" even as Trump did acknowledge "some disagree a little bit" with Musk's slash-and-burn tactics but said overall the cabinet is "thrilled."
The hard evidence so far belies Musk's overall promise amid concerns that the fiscal picture could be moving in the opposite direction after House Republicans moved forward on a plan that could enact $4.5 trillion in new tax cuts as part of a deal that could add $3 trillion in new government red ink.
American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Kyle Pomerleau recently noted in a Yahoo Finance Live appearance that perhaps the only certainty is that the $36 trillion national debt will continue to rise.
"Ultimately, we're going to be looking at more debt and more borrowing, not less of it," he said.
'I would like to see him get more aggressive'
The limited results for DOGE so far haven't stopped both Trump and Musk from remaining very public cheerleaders of the effort and suggesting that savings could increase.
Trump perhaps offered an allusion to the pace when he offered in an all-caps social media post over the weekend that Musk is doing well, "but I would like to see him get more aggressive."
The presidential feedback, which Musk embraced, comes as Trump has continued to talk about a balanced budget; he touted the idea at least twice on Wednesday alone. Yet, government spending in 2025 has so far been all but indistinguishable from 2024 and appears on track for another multitrillion-dollar deficit.
The reviews so far from various markets are also decidedly mixed. The stock market — after a series of recent drops fueled by a range of Trump initiatives like tariffs — is slightly lower than when Trump took the oath of office on Jan. 20.
The much-watched 10-year Treasury yield has fallen some since Trump's inauguration, much to his team's happiness. But it remains elevated and noticeably above levels seen last fall during the Biden administration.
Musk has signaled that the verdict of the bond markets is important to him, even at times speaking directly to traders.
"Look, if you're shorting bonds, I think you're on the wrong side of the bet," Musk said in January during a stream on his social media platform, X.
For now, Trump hasn't shown any signs of slowing Musk efforts, joking during Wednesday's cabinet meeting to his assembled aides that if anyone is unhappy with Musk, "we'll throw them out of here."
Correction: A previous version of this article incorrectly stated that DOGE's claimed savings were $9.75 trillion. The correct figure is $9.75 billion. We regret the error.
Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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