Bitcoin's Acquisition Cost Hits Record $40.9K in 2024 as Analysts Predict $40K Floor Price

Bitcoin’s average acquisition cost reached an all-time high of $40,980 per BTC at the end of 2024, according to ARK Invest’s Big Ideas 2025 report. This marks an 86% increase over the previous year, bringing the total market value of Bitcoin holdings to $811.7 billion. Investors are watching this metric closely, as some see it as an indicator of Bitcoin’s fair value in the long term. Industry figures, including Blockstream’s Adam Back, suggest that Bitcoin’s “floor price” is now above $40,000, making it a key support level for the asset.

Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average also provides insight into the cryptocurrency's price behavior. On Feb. 11, this metric reached $43,983, signaling that Bitcoin’s floor price may be nearing $44,000. Analysts often use this moving average to determine long-term trends and smooth out short-term volatility. Back pointed out that this level has historically acted as a support base for Bitcoin, suggesting that the $40,000 mark is not just a psychological barrier but a significant price level.

While Bitcoin’s long-term outlook appears stronger, short-term price movements remain vulnerable to economic data. On Feb. 9, Bitcoin’s price remained above $95,000 despite a massive sell-off triggered by concerns about escalating trade tensions between the U.S., China, and other global economies. This marked one of the largest intraday sell-offs since the collapse of Three Arrows Capital in 2022. Bitcoin’s sensitivity to broader economic developments underscores the cryptocurrency’s ongoing volatility.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s price could be impacted by new economic data, including the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, released on Feb. 12. Analysts, including Iliya Kalchev from Nexo, believe that higher-than-expected CPI numbers could reignite fears of interest rate hikes, which could hurt Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. Additional inflation data from Japan, Germany, and the U.K. will further shape the global market’s outlook for Bitcoin.

Despite the immediate volatility, Bitcoin’s growing cost basis and the strong support seen in the 200-week moving average indicate that it may be finding a more stable price level. These developments could help Bitcoin recover from market fluctuations, offering a stronger foundation for investors in the long run. However, as Bitcoin remains sensitive to economic pressures, its future trajectory will depend heavily on global economic trends and investor sentiment.