Russia's Sakhalin Island Oil Is Backing Up After US Sanctions
(Bloomberg) -- Crude shipments from Russia’s Sakhalin Island projects aren’t being discharged after the tankers carrying them were sanctioned by the US. About 6.3 million barrels of Pacific crude is being held on vessels that have been stationary for at least a week.
The disruption comes as Russia's wider oil exports have plunged — albeit following an unusually long storm that halted flows from another port in Asia.
Only one of eight Sokol shipments that loaded since the shuttle tankers used to move the grade were blacklisted has discharged. Two have been switched onto a supertanker anchored near the Russian port of Nakhodka, while the others are idling. Unless more cargoes are moved off shuttle tankers, the Sakhalin 1 energy project is about to run out of empty ships to load its crude.
It’s a similar picture for Sakhalin 2. A fourth tanker, the Galaxy, has been used to haul the grade, in addition to the dedicated fleet of three shuttles, which are all idling. But it, too, is now floating, showing a speed of one knot off the Japanese island of Hokkaido while signaling a destination of Gulei in China.
In the west, the first sanctioned cargoes from Murmansk are still at least a week from destinations on the west coast of India. Several ships are now signaling “North China,” having previously been identified as heading to India. It’s unclear whether this is to generate confusion, or whether it reflects an unwillingness on the part of India to take crude carried on blacklisted vessels.
If cargoes aren’t accepted at receiving terminals, floating storage of Russian oil will build up quickly. Already, one of the post-sanctions cargoes from Murmansk is on a ship signaling OPL Oman — a potential storage site — as its destination.
Russia is avoiding the use of sanctioned tankers at its key Baltic ports. Only one vessel blacklisted by the US has loaded in the region since the latest curbs were announced on Jan. 10. The Akademik Gubkin, which loaded at Ust-Luga on Jan. 29, is heading across the Atlantic. It briefly signaled its destination as Matanzas in Cuba, then changed that to the Suez Canal. It appears that the Caribbean destination was accurate.
Key Pacific grade ESPO is also being moved only on ships that haven’t been blacklisted. But a five-day storm, with winds gusting at more than 40 miles an hour, severely hampered operations at the port last week. That cut Russia’s total seaborne crude exports to their lowest in more than two years.
Crude Shipments
A total of 21 tankers loaded 16.1 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Feb. 9, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down from a revised 21.34 million barrels on 29 ships the previous week.
Daily crude flows in the seven days to Feb. 9 fell by about 750,000 barrels, or 25%, from the previous week to 2.3 million.
A five-day storm at Kozmino, with winds gusting above 40 miles an hour, prevented ships from mooring at the export berths for most of the week.
Less volatile four-week average flows were down by 180,000 barrels a day from the previous week’s revised number, to 2.83 million barrels a day.
One cargo of Kazakhstan’s KEBCO crude was loaded during the week from Novorossiysk.
Export Value
A decline in the price of Russian crude added to the decrease in exports to leave the gross value of Moscow’s exports down by about $380 million, or 28%, to $990 million in the week to Feb. 9. That’s the lowest since December 2022.
Export values of Russian crudes were down week-on-week by between $1 and $3 a barrel. Delivered prices in India were down by about $2.20, all according to numbers from Argus Media.
On a four-week average basis, income slipped to about $1.31 billion a week, from $1.43 billion in the period to Feb. 2.
Flows by Destination
Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, fell to 2.52 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Feb. 9, slipping to about 19% below the average level seen during the most recent peak in October.
Turkey is now the only short-haul market for shipments from Russia’s western ports, with flows in the 28 days to Feb. 9 falling to 287,000 barrels a day, their lowest in five weeks.
NOTES
This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, Feb. 18.
All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.
Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd.
If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations.
--With assistance from Sherry Su.