Super Bowl food stock plays: Wingstop, Domino's poised to win on game day
The nation's largest chains will get a boost this Super Bowl Sunday as fans chow down on wings and pepperoni slices.
During Super Bowl LIX, the National Chicken Council estimates fans will eat a record 1.47 billion wings as they watch the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles compete for the Lombardi Trophy.
TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles said that the big day is a boost to any delivery-centered business.
"We like Domino's. We like Wingstop. ... It's a win for the [home delivery] category," Charles said. He cited the two names as top stocks based on their reputations for value and innovation.
Last quarter, Wingstop's ( WING ) same-store sales increased 20.9%. For the fourth quarter, Wall Street estimates an 11.70% year-over-year jump.
BTIG analyst Peter Saleh called Wingstop one of his "top picks" for 2025 as it gains "new customers and more traffic," with its $16.99 boneless meal bundle that previously provided a "pretty meaningful lift in transactions and same-store sales."
Last year, DoorDash ( DASH ) saw the biggest spike in orders for buffalo wings, cauliflower wings, pepperoni pizza, and chocolate-covered strawberries compared to the year prior.
Buffalo Wild Wings, owned by Inspire Brands, said it recorded its biggest sales day in history for Super Bowl 2024. It typically sells over 11 million wings on the day.
Chicken wing prices have jumped 7.2% from last year, per Wells Fargo , as grocers try to balance demand.
Michael Swanson of Wells Fargo said consumers would "empty the shelf" if grocers reduced their chicken wing prices. So instead, stores have raised prices moderately to ensure supply doesn't run out ahead of the weekend.
"The store is trying to put that price that finds just the right balance between the amount of chicken wings they have and what people are willing to buy for," he told Yahoo Finance over the phone.
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Tyson Foods ( TSN ) CEO Donnie King said that the end of January and early February are typically the highest two weeks of sales for chicken wings, adding that demand has been "very strong."
"Wings show up in all [kinds] of places, from pizza restaurants to casual dining," he said.
Domino's ( DPZ ) continues to lead the pizza space with its value perception, Charles said. It also wins over fans with new menu items, like its New York-style pizza.
A Domino's spokesperson told Yahoo Finance that Sunday is typically one of Domino's US top five busiest delivery days of the year, with 2 million pizzas sold on the day, a 40% jump compared to the typical Sunday.
In Q3, Domino's posted a 3% increase in same-store sales, and it's expected to see a 1.75% increase in the fourth quarter.
And if you're hosting — don't forget the drinks and sides.
Molson Coors ( TAP ) and Mondelēz ( MDLZ ) are top plays among their peers, Bank of America analyst Bryan Spillane said.
"Super Bowl could be a really good launch point" for Molson Coors, he told Yahoo Finance over the phone. The beer giant already dropped its 60-second commercial spot.
"As we head into the summer ... the [year over year] comparisons are easy. We don't know what's going to happen with tariffs ... will Mexican beer prices have to go up? If they do, that's probably going to be good for both Molson Coors and Bud."
For its latest quarter, Wall Street projects a 7.3% decline in volume, compared to the 12.3% decline in the prior quarter. Improvement is expected to continue throughout the year.
Mondelēz's Oreo cookies continue to be a growth driver for the snack giant.
"They've got more ability to do more at the point of sale, especially with packaging, to augment the marketing message," Spillane said. The brand has also been able to "clear" hurdles around the fear of cocoa inflation.
This week, Mondelēz posted results that slightly missed estimates on revenue and earnings, but did clock 3.1% growth in its net revenue.
Meanwhile, main player PepsiCo ( PEP ) may still struggle to stand out during the game, even with its ad for Mountain Dew.
Mountain Dew and Pepsi are losing market share to Coke ( KO ), per Spillane. "[Its] salty snack business, Doritos and Lays, ... [is] still struggling," he added.
On Tuesday, the company posted earnings that were largely in line with the Street's expectations on the top and bottom lines. However, Frito-Lay North America sales dropped 2.7% year over year. CEO Ramon Laguarta told Yahoo Finance he is encouraged by the snacking category broadly returning to growth again.
Overall, snack brands, unlike restaurants, have struggled with getting inflation-weary shoppers over the sticker shock of their hiked prices.
"Fast food ... restaurants, as a group ... have done much better at identifying ... where value is for consumers and then driving better performance," he said, adding that companies like PepsiCo and Hershey ( HSY ), among others, are "still trying to drive demand and get consumers past the sticker shock of things being so expensive."
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BrookeDiPalma