Bitcoin Short-Term Holders' Speculative Moves Signal Strong Bullish Outlook — Analyst

Bitcoin's price is currently $101,099, according to CoinMarketCap, following a recovery that saw 80% of short-term holders return to profit. Earlier in the month, the supply of short-term holders in loss dropped to 65% before Bitcoin regained momentum above $100,000. The short-term realized price is $90,541, based on Checkonchain data.

In January, Bitcoin fluctuated around the $100,000 level, briefly dipping below before reaching an all-time high of $109,000 on Jan. 20, just before Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration. Analysts have pointed to the behavior of short-term holders, often driven by fear of missing out (FOMO), as a sign of market optimism. These investors tend to buy aggressively during price surges, which IT Tech, a CryptoQuant contributor, says contributes to a “bullish tone” for 2025.

Long-term holders, who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days, maintain a dominant position in the market, continuing to accumulate during price declines while taking profits strategically during upward trends. The average long-term holder's cost is $24,639 per Bitcoin, according to Bitbo, meaning most are seeing profits of over four times their investment. Occasional sell-offs by these holders are viewed as healthy, creating opportunities for others to accumulate.

IT Tech also noted that short-term holders are becoming increasingly confident, particularly as Bitcoin’s price gains upward momentum. Their activity signals strong speculative behavior, which, combined with the steady actions of long-term holders, supports the cryptocurrency's positive outlook for the year ahead.

A separate analysis by CryptoQuant’s “Crazzyblockk” highlighted that long-term holders are refraining from major sell-offs. Only 18% of Bitcoin deposits into Binance were attributed to long-term holders, signaling continued commitment despite market volatility. This behavior reinforces the market’s overall stability, even during periods of fluctuation.

Throughout this period, Bitcoin’s market dynamics have been shaped by the contrasting behaviors of long-term and short-term holders. While long-term holders focus on accumulation during downturns, short-term holders seize opportunities during price rallies. This dual dynamic has set the stage for a bullish market sentiment heading into 2025.

The balance between these two groups—long-term holders’ steady accumulation and short-term holders’ speculative enthusiasm—has contributed to Bitcoin’s price stability and growth potential. Analysts believe this trend positions Bitcoin well for continued upward movement over the next 12 months.