The Trump stock market rally is fading fast

The S&P 500 is close to erasing all the gains it notched since Donald Trump’s election victory.

As of market close on Monday, the S&P 500 was up just 0.92% since Nov. 5 — the day Trump clinched a second term in the White House and set off a stock market rally . S&P 500 futures were up 0.27% early Tuesday, pointing to a potential bounce back after sinking 0.77% so far in January.

But if the index continues to close lower through Inauguration Day next Monday, it could represent the worst performance for the S&P 500 between Election Day and a presidential inauguration since 2009, when Barack Obama first took office during the Great Recession, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group reported by CNBC.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has also pared back its post-election gains in recent weeks, and is now only 0.18% higher than Nov. 5. That index is down 0.85% so far this year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is still up 3.52% since Election Day, although it has also seen some moderation in returns.

A slump in tech stocks on Monday, including Nvidia ( NVDA ) and Super Micro Computer ( SMCI ), following new Biden administration rules governing the sale of AI chips, sent the Nasdaq and S&P 500 lower. In 2025, the Nasdaq has also slumped 1.63%.

Dow futures were up 115 points in pre-market trading Tuesday, while Nasdaq futures ticked up 0.33%.

In the aftermath of the election, major U.S. indexes hit new records in a Trump-fueled market rally, with the Dow hitting 44,000 for the first time in its 128-year history and the S&P 500 crossing the 6,000 mark.

Investors are also bracing for the start of fourth-quarter earnings, which will kick off Wednesday with major banks JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ), Citibank ( C ), and Wells Fargo ( WFC ). The December Consumer Price Index, a key inflation gauge, is also set to be released Wednesday morning. Economic indicators will continue to have an outsized impact on trading as Wall Street prepares for fewer interest rate cuts in 2025.

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