Moderna stock seesaws as first US bird flu death puts vaccine development in focus

Moderna stock ( MRNA ) has seen big swings this week after the first reported bird flu death in the US , which has put its development of a vaccine in focus.

The stock jumped over 10% on Tuesday before reversing course and losing over 6% early Wednesday.

In July 2024, Moderna was awarded $176 million from the US government to advance the development of its mRNA H5N1 (bird flu) vaccine, which is in the early stages of testing. The award came after an outbreak of the virus in cows infected three dairy workers, prompting concerns of an outbreak in humans.

As of January, there have been 66 confirmed cases of H5N1 in the US since 2024, the CDC said Monday.

“CDC has carefully studied the available information about the person who died in Louisiana and continues to assess that the risk to the general public remains low,” the federal public health agency said. “However, people with job-related or recreational exposures to infected birds or other animals are at greater risk of infection.”

After Moderna’s development of a COVID-19 vaccine fueled a massive surge in revenue — rising more than 2,000% in 2021 from the prior year, with the vaccine maker turning its first-ever profit — the company has sputtered in a post-pandemic world. Moderna’s revenue fell 64% to just below $7 billion in 2023 (far below the $18.5 billion in sales reported in 2020), and the company reported a loss of roughly $12 per share.

Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg expect the company to report a loss of a little over $9 per share for the fiscal year 2024 and for sales to halve from the prior year.

Even with this week’s uptick, Moderna shares are down nearly 60% from last year. More than half of analysts tracked by Yahoo Finance have a Hold rating on the stock but, on average, see shares rising to $74 over the next 12 months, implying a 56% gain from their current level.

Shares of other companies developing an mRNA bird flu shot also rose on news of the bird flu death. Novavax stock ( NVAX ) surged nearly 11% Tuesday. German biotech firm CureVac ( CVAC ) rose more than 4%.

CureVac is developing an mRNA bird flu shot in collaboration with Indian pharma giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) ( GLAXO.BO ). Pfizer stock ( PFE ) ticked up a much more modest 0.9%, while GSK itself dropped 1%.

An uptick in COVID-19 cases reported by the CDC also helped prop up vaccine makers earlier this week.